Shutterstock / Andy Dean Photography
Home values are down 2% in San Antonio since last year, according to Reventure Consulting.
In a YouTube video shared Monday, Nick Gerli, CEO and founder of real estate consulting firm Reventure Consulting, ranked San Antonio as the No. 6 housing market most at risk of a significant devaluation. Two other Texas cities, Dallas and Austin, also made the top 10.
A frequent guest on CNBC, Gerli's consulting firm collects metrics from housing markets across the nation to project where home values may decline in the near future. A full breakdown of the data can be found on the company's website.
Gerli compiled his list of the 10 most at-risk housing markets by analyzing which are facing what he called the "trifecta" of a housing market downturn: higher inventory, a rising number of price cuts and declining listing prices.
"When you see that trifecta of things starts to occur, that means the market is in a downturn," Gerli said in the video. "If you're a buyer, you're probably better off waiting — at least for the next six to three months to see how the market shakes out."
Last month, 10,602 homes were listed for sale in the San Antonio metro area, the highest number recorded since Reventure started collecting data in 2017. Home values here declined 2% in the past year, according to the data.
"This is an area in America that is getting absolutely walloped by what I call a 'wall of inventory,' Gerli said of San Antonio's housing market. "There is so much supply hitting the market. Investors are selling, builders are liquidating homes and you also now have a lot of existing owners starting to move out of the city, many of whom moved in during the last two years."
Things didn't look much better in other major Texas metros.
About 31% of sellers in the Dallas area, which came in at No. 9 on Gerli's list, have cut the sale price on their listing in May. That's the highest number since Reventure began collecting data.
Meanwhile, in No. 3 Austin, the median listing price for a home is down about 11% from the real estate bubble's 2022 peak. Meanwhile, the typical home value is down 17% during that same time.
Gerli has been warning since the summer of 2022 about a potential collapse in the housing market, especially in pandemic boomtowns such as San Antonio. With the Federal Reserve still refusing to cut interest rates due to inflation, home values are likely to continue their decline
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